Indeterminate Probabilities on Finite Sets
有限集合上的不确定概率
This paper presents a quasi-Bayesian model of subjective uncertainty in which beliefs which are represented by lower and upper probabilities qualified by numerical confidence weights. The representation is derived from a system of axioms of binary preferences which differs from standard axiom systems insofar as completeness is not assumed and transitivity is weakened. Confidence-weighted probabilities may be elicited through the acceptance of bets with limited stakes, a…