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Abstract A common challenge in estimating the impact of interventions (e.g. job training programmes, educational programmes) is that many outcomes of interest (e.g. lifetime earnings or other labour market outcomes) are observed with a long delay. In biomedical settings, this is often addressed by using short-term outcomes as so-called “surrogates” for the outcome of interest, e.g. tumour size as a surrogate for mortality in cancer studies. We build on this literature by…

大量无效工具变量下的识别与推断AI 解读

We study estimation and inference in settings where the interest is in the effect of a potentially endogenous regressor on some outcome. To address the endogeneity, we exploit the presence of additional variables. Like conventional instrumental variables, these variables are correlated with the endogenous regressor. However, unlike conventional instrumental variables, they also have direct effects on the outcome, and thus are “invalid” instruments. Our novel identifying…