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This paper generalises four types of disturbance commonly used in univariate time series analysis to the multivariate case, highlights the differences between univariate and multivariate outliers, and investigates dynamic effects of a multivariate outlier on individual components. The effect of a multivariate outlier depends not only on its size and the underlying model, but also on the interaction between the size and the dynamic structure of the model. The latter factor…

股票波动率的非线性时间序列分析AI 解读

The absolute value of the mean-corrected excess return is used in this paper to measure the volatility of stock returns. We apply various nonlinearity tests available in the literature to show that such volatility series are strongly nonlinear. We then explore the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models in describing monthly volatility series. The models built suggest that the volatility series exhibit significant lower-order serial correlations when the volatility is…