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多个时间序列片段的对齐
We consider a local least-squares criterion for aligning multiple time series fragments differing by locations and show the consistency of the time-lag estimator and the asymptotic normality of the location estimator. We apply the criterion to the problem of aligning 50 glacial varve fragments and construct a 3000-year surrogate for global temperature.
带切换的动态线性模型
The problem of modeling change in a vector time series is studied using a dynamic linear model with measurement matrices that switch according to a time-varying independent random process. We derive filtered estimators for the usual state vectors and also for the state occupancy probabilities of the underlying nonstationary measurement process. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is given that uses a pseudo-expectation-maximization algorithm in the initial stages and…
带切换机制的动态线性模型
The problem of modeling change in a vector time series is studied using a dynamic linear model with measurement matrices that switch according to a time-varying independent random process. We derive filtered estimators for the usual state vectors and also for the state occupancy probabilities of the underlying nonstationary measurement process. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is given that uses a pseudo-expectation-maximization algorithm in the initial stages and…
平稳时间序列的线性判别函数
Certain spectral approximations are applied to the problem of discriminating between two normal processes by linear filtering. Limiting values for the (1) Kullback-Leibler discrimination information rate, (2) J-divergence rate and (3) detection probability are expressed in terms of the spectral densities of the two populations and the Fourier-Stieltjes transform of the mean difference between them. Spectral approximations to (1), (2) and (3), convenient for computing, are…