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Fitting time series models to nonstationary processes

非平稳过程的时间序列模型拟合

A general minimum distance estimation procedure is presented for nonstationary time series models that have an evolutionary spectral representation. The asymptotic properties of the estimate are derived under the assumption of possible model misspecification. For autoregressive processes with time varying coefficients, the estimate is compared to the least squares estimate. Furthermore, the behavior of estimates is explained when a stationary model is fitted to a…

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A frequency domain bootstrap for ratio statistics in time series analysis

时间序列比值统计量的频域自助法

The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap in the frequency domain based on Studentized periodogram ordinates are studied. It is proved that this bootstrap approximation is valid for ratio statistics such as autocorrelations. By using Edgeworth expansions it is shown that the bootstrap approximation even outperforms the normal approximation. The results carry over to Whittle estimates. In a simulation study the behavior of the bootstrap is studied for empirical correlations…

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Asymptotically optimal estimation in misspecified time series models

误设时间序列模型中的渐近最优估计

A concept of asymptotically efficient estimation is presented when a misspecified parametric time series model is fitted to a stationary process. Efficiency of several minimum distance estimates is proved and the behavior of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimate is studied. Furthermore, the behavior of estimates that minimize the h-step prediction error is discussed briefly. The paper answers to some extent the question what happens when a misspecified model is fitted to…

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Edge Effects and Efficient Parameter Estimation for Stationary Random Fields

平稳随机场的边缘效应与有效参数估计

We consider the estimation of the parameters of a stationary random field on d-dimensional lattice by minimizing the classical Whittle approximation to the Gaussian log likelihood. If the usual biased sample covariances are used, the estimate is efficient only in one dimension. To remove this edge effect, we introduce data tapers and show that the resulting modified estimate is efficient also in two and three dimensions. This avoids the use of the unbiased sample covariances…

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Edge effects and efficient parameter estimation for stationary random fields

平稳随机场参数有效估计中的边界效应

We consider the estimation of the parameters of a stationary random field on d-dimensional lattice by minimizing the classical Whittle approximation to the Gaussian log likelihood. If the usual biased sample covariances are used, the estimate is efficient only in one dimension. To remove this edge effect, we introduce data tapers and show that the resulting modified estimate is efficient also in two and three dimensions. This avoids the use of the unbiased sample covariances…

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