Adaption of bivariate frailty models for prediction, with application to biological markers as prognostic indicators
适用于预测的二元脆弱性模型：生物标志物预后应用
Serial biological markers are often used in medicine as prognostic indicators. For example, elevated tumour antigen tests presage tumour recurrence; rapid decrease in the CD4 cell counts of HIV + individuals indicate high risk for developing AIDS. Methods for evaluating the usefulness of markers should address how the prediction of future risk is revised, in a way that assists the making of decisions at the time such an indicator is observed. Proportional hazards modelling…