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同质结构下的面板分位数 GARCH 模型AI 解读

Empirical evidence indicates that the estimates of GARCH parameters cluster in a panel of financial assets, potentially due to assets with similar exposure to common market risks. To capture the subgroup effect on conditional quantiles of financial asset returns and improve estimation efficiency by pooling information across individuals within the same group, this article introduces the panel quantile GARCH model with homogeneous structures in the coefficient functions. A…

含不可观测异质性的时空模型估计与自助法AI 解读

Proposed herein is a novel spatiotemporal model to characterize the unobserved heterogeneity across individuals using quantile-function-based correlated random effects and heteroscedastic innovations in a general framework. This model can be used to explore the influence of space-specific factors on latent effects at different quantile levels by controlling for spatiotemporal effects. A two-stage estimation procedure is introduced in which (i) the method of moments is used…

分位数自回归条件异方差模型AI 解读

Abstract This article proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(∞) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional quantiles of the time series across different quantile levels, while including the commonly used GARCH model as a special case. The strict stationarity of the model is discussed. For robustness against heavy-tailed distributions, a…

分位数双重自回归模型AI 解读

Many financial time series have varying structures at different quantile levels, and also exhibit the phenomenon of conditional heteroskedasticity at the same time. However, there is presently no time series model that accommodates both of these features. This paper fills the gap by proposing a novel conditional heteroskedastic model called “quantile double autoregression”. The strict stationarity of the new model is derived, and self-weighted conditional quantile estimation…

条件异方差时间序列模型的混合分位数回归估计AI 解读

Summary Estimating conditional quantiles of financial time series is essential for risk management and many other financial applications. For time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity, although it is the generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model that has the greatest popularity, quantile regression for this model usually gives rise to non-smooth non-convex optimization which may hinder its practical feasibility. The paper proposes an…

线性双重自回归AI 解读

This paper proposes the linear double autoregression, a conditional heteroscedastic model with a conditional mean structure but compatible with the quantile regression. The existence of a strictly stationary solution is discussed, for which a necessary and sufficient condition is established. A doubly weighted quantile regression estimation procedure is introduced, where the first set of weights ensures the asymptotic normality of the estimator and the second set improves…

混合双重自回归时间序列模型AI 解读

This article proposes a mixture double autoregressive model by introducing the flexibility of mixture models to the double autoregressive model, a novel conditional heteroscedastic model recently proposed in the literature. To make it more flexible, the mixing proportions are further assumed to be time varying, and probabilistic properties including strict stationarity and higher order moments are derived. Inference tools including the maximum likelihood estimation, an…