Predicting Shifts in the Mean of a Multivariate Time Series Process: An Application in Predicting Business Failures
多元时间序列均值变化预测：企业失败预测应用
A firm in the early stages of financial distress exhibits characteristics different from those of healthy firms. As the economic condition of a firm worsens, its financial characteristics shift toward those of failed firms. Practitioners in the financial sector have long been interested in the early detection of a firm's slide toward insolvency. Several models have been developed with this purpose in mind, but these older models are static in nature. Therefore, a need exists…