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健康与退休研究中概率预期的尾部与中心舍入AI 解读

We study rounding of numerical expectations in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) between 2002 and 2014. We document that respondent-specific rounding patterns across questions in individual waves are quite stable across waves. We discover a tendency by about half of the respondents to provide more refined responses in the tails of the 0–100 scale than the center. In contrast, only about five percent of the respondents give more refined responses in the center than the…

单调性假设下分位数的非参数界：意大利教育回报应用AI 解读

Within the inferential context of predicting a distribution of potential outcomes P[y(t)] under a uniform treatment assignment t ∈ T, this paper deals with partial identification of the α-quantile of the distribution of interest Qα[y(t)] under relatively weak and credible monotonicity-type assumptions on the individual response functions and the population selection process. On the theoretical side, the paper adds to the existing results on non-parametric bounds on quantiles…