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用于正则化非线性回归的随机树集成AI 解读

This article develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, referred to as accelerated Bayesian additive regression trees, or XBART. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from Bayesian modeling with computationally efficient techniques from recursive partitioning algorithms, XBART attains state-of-the-art performance at prediction and function estimation. Simulation studies demonstrate that XBART provides accurate point-wise…

递归贝叶斯预测分布AI 解读

P. Richard Hahna, Ryan Martinb* & Stephen G. Walkerca Booth School of Business, The University of Chicago, Chicago, ILb Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, NCc Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at Austin, TXCONTACT Ryan Martin rgmarti3@ncsu.edu Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, NC 27607Supplementary materials for this article are available online. Please go to www.tandfonline.com/r/JASA.ABSTRACTA Bayesian framework…

多工具变量线性 IV 回归的贝叶斯因子模型收缩AI 解读

A Bayesian approach for the many instruments problem in linear instrumental variable models is presented. The new approach has two components. First, a slice sampler is developed, which leverages a decomposition of the likelihood function that is a Bayesian analogue to two-stage least squares. The new sampler permits nonconjugate shrinkage priors to be implemented easily and efficiently. The new computational approach permits a Bayesian analysis of problems that were…

推断会计违规发生率的贝叶斯部分识别方法AI 解读

This article describes the use of flexible Bayesian regression models for estimating a partially identified probability function. Our approach permits efficient sensitivity analysis concerning the posterior impact of priors on the partially identified component of the regression model. The new methodology is illustrated on an important problem where only partially observed data are available—inferring the prevalence of accounting misconduct among publicly traded U.S.…

贝叶斯线性模型中收缩与选择的解耦：后验摘要视角AI 解读

Selecting a subset of variables for linear models remains an active area of research. This article reviews many of the recent contributions to the Bayesian model selection and shrinkage prior literature. A posterior variable selection summary is proposed, which distills a full posterior distribution over regression coefficients into a sequence of sparse linear predictors.

部分因子建模：线性回归中依赖预测变量的收缩AI 解读

We develop a modified Gaussian factor model for the purpose of inducing predictor-dependent shrinkage for linear regression. The new model predicts well across a wide range of covariance structures, on real and simulated data. Furthermore, the new model facilitates variable selection in the case of correlated predictor variables, which often stymies other methods.