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是否应利用辅助网络信息改进大型协方差矩阵估计？AI 解读

This paper uses the auxiliary network information, observed in addition to the original sample, to infer latent network structures in the population correlation matrix and thus improve high-dimensional covariance matrix estimation. Building on estimated Location Indicator and Relative Importance matrices, we propose two Network-Guided estimators. Network-Guided Thresholding uses auxiliary network data to regularize the large and small elements in the sample covariance…

资产收益与期权需求的条件密度比模型估计AI 解读

Option-implied risk-neutral densities are widely used for constructing forward-looking risk measures. Meanwhile, risk aversion introduces a multiplicative pricing kernel between the risk-neutral and true conditional densities of the underlying asset’s return. This paper proposes a simple local estimator of the pricing kernel based on inverse density weighting. We characterize the asymptotic bias and variance of the estimator and its multiplicatively corrected density…

积分波动率与瞬时波动率的稳健估计AI 解读

We introduce a new method to estimate the integrated volatility (IV) and the spot volatility (SV) based on noisy high-frequency data. Our method employs the ReMeDI approach introduced by Li and Linton (2022) to estimate the moments of microstructure noise and thereby eliminate their influence, and the pre-averaging method to target the volatility parameter. The method is robust: it can be applied when the efficient price exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps, the…

高频双因子模型中微观结构噪声与有效价格共同因子的估计AI 解读

We develop the Double Principal Component Analysis (DPCA) based on a dual factor structure for high-frequency intraday returns contaminated with microstructure noise. The dual factor structure allows a factor structure for microstructure noise in addition to the factor structure for efficient log-prices. We construct estimators of factors for both efficient log-prices and microstructure noise as well as their common components, and provide uniform consistency of these…

高频金融数据的大型瞬时波动率矩阵非参数估计AI 解读

In this paper, we consider estimating spot/instantaneous volatility matrices of high-frequency data collected for a large number of assets. We first combine classic nonparametric kernel-based smoothing with a generalized shrinkage technique in the matrix estimation for noise-free data under a uniform sparsity assumption, a natural extension of the approximate sparsity commonly used in the literature. The uniform consistency property is derived for the proposed spot…

高维时间序列时变网络的估计AI 解读

We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs are investigated: one containing directed edges of Granger causality linkages, and the other containing undirected edges of partial correlation linkages. Under the sparse structural assumption, we propose a penalised local linear method…

交互固定效应高维面板模型的估计与推断AI 解读

We develop new econometric methods for estimation and inference in high‐dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Our approach can be regarded as a nontrivial extension of the very popular common correlated effects (CCE) approach. Roughly speaking, we proceed as follows: We first construct a projection device to eliminate the unobserved factors from the model by applying a dimensionality reduction transform to the matrix of cross‐sectionally averaged…

高维面板数据模型的 GMM 估计AI 解读

In this paper, we study a class of high dimensional moment restriction panel data models with interactive effects, where the factors are unobserved and these factor loadings are nonparametrically unknown smooth functions of individual characteristic variables. We allow the dimension of the parameter vector and the number of moment conditions to diverge with the sample size. This is a very general framework and is closely related to many existing linear and nonlinear panel…

洪永淼、Oliver Linton、孙佳静与朱美婷对机器学习概率与统计讨论会的评论AI 解读

This paper proposes a neural network-based approach for automating offline change-point detection. The authors show that cumulative sum (CUSUM) and generalized CUSUM are a special case of their neural network class. They emphasize misclassification error rates and their theoretical contribution is to establish some elegant results for these under i.i.d. unit variance Gaussian data with a possible change in mean. Their theoretical results outline the conditions on the…

套利特征的动态同类群组AI 解读

We propose an asset pricing factor model constructed with semiparametric characteristics-based mispricing and factor loading functions. We approximate the unknown functions by B-splines sieve where the number of B-splines coefficients is diverging. We estimate this model and test the existence of the mispricing function by a power enhanced hypothesis test. The enhanced test solves the low power problem caused by diverging B-splines coefficients, with the strengthened power…

结构突变的 KS 型检验：基于调整极差的自归一化方法AI 解读

A popular self-normalization (SN) approach in time series analysis uses the variance of a partial sum as a self-normalizer. This is known to be sensitive to irregularities such as persistent autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, unit roots and outliers. We propose a novel SN approach based on the adjusted-range of a partial sum, which is robust to these aforementioned irregularities. We develop an adjusted-range based Kolmogorov–Smirnov type test for structural breaks for…

股票市场中的新闻隐含联系与局部依赖AI 解读

This paper studies a heterogeneous coefficient spatial factor model that separately addresses both common factor risks (strong cross-sectional dependence) and local dependency (weak cross-sectional dependence) in equity returns. From the asset pricing perspective, we derive the theoretical implications of no asymptotic arbitrage for the heterogeneous spatial factor model, generalizing the work of Kou et al. (2018). We also provide the associated Wald tests for the APT…

具有大量条件变量的随机占优检验AI 解读

We propose tests of the conditional first- and second-order stochastic dominance in the presence of growing numbers of covariates. Our approach builds on a semiparametric location-scale model, where the conditional distribution of the outcome given the covariates is characterized by nonparametric mean and skedastic functions with independent innovations from an unknown distribution. The nonparametric regression functions are estimated by utilizing the ℓ1-penalized…

时间随机占优检验AI 解读

We propose nonparametric tests for the null hypothesis of time stochastic dominance. Time stochastic dominance makes a partial order of different prospects over time based on the net present value criteria for general utility and time discount function classes. For example, time stochastic dominance can be used for ranking investment strategies or environmental policies based on the expected net present value of the future benefits. We consider an Lp-type test statistic and…

高维半参数矩约束模型AI 解读

We consider nonlinear moment restriction semiparametric models where both the dimension of the parameter vector and the number of restrictions are divergent with sample size and an unknown smooth function is involved. We propose an estimation method based on the sieve generalized method of moments (sieve-GMM). We establish consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimated quantities when the number of parameters increases modestly with sample size. We also consider the…

连续处理效应模型设定检验的统一框架AI 解读

We propose a general framework for the specification testing of continuous treatment effect models. We assume a general residual function, which includes the average and quantile treatment effect models as special cases. The null models are identified under the unconfoundedness condition and contain a nonparametric weighting function. We propose a test statistic for the null model in which the weighting function is estimated by solving an expanding set of moment equations.…

董朝华、高继挺与 Oliver Linton 对《广义线性模型参数的弱假设推断》的讨论AI 解读

The title of this paper is ironically self-fulfilling, since there are almost no meaningful assumptions made throughout! The starting point is that we have some plausible semi-parametric model, which is a special case of a more general non-parametric model, but we wish to allow for misspecification and in particular define an estimand that is meaningful in the non-parametric model and that specialises in the plausible model to a slope coefficient. However, since the…

连续处理模型中反事实分布与分位数函数的估计推断AI 解读

Donald and Hsu (2014) studied the estimation and inference for the counterfactual distribution and quantile functions in a binary treatment model. We extend their work to the continuous treatment model. Specifically, we propose a weighted regression estimator for the counterfactual distribution but we estimate the weighting function from a covariate balancing equation by maximizing a globally concave criterion function. We estimate the quantile function by inverting the…

ReMeDI：微观结构噪声的分离增量已实现矩方法AI 解读

We introduce the Realized moMents of Disjoint Increments (ReMeDI) paradigm to measure microstructure noise (the deviation of the observed asset prices from the fundamental values caused by market imperfections). We propose consistent estimators of arbitrary moments of the microstructure noise process based on high‐frequency data, where the noise process could be serially dependent, endogenous, and nonstationary. We characterize the limit distributions of the proposed…

欧拉方程的非参数识别与估计AI 解读

We consider nonparametric identification and estimation of pricing kernels, or equivalently of marginal utility functions up to scale, in consumption-based asset pricing Euler equations. Ours is the first paper to prove nonparametric identification of Euler equations under low level conditions (without imposing functional restrictions or just assuming completeness). We also propose a novel nonparametric estimator based on our identification analysis, which combines standard…

含非平稳变量的非参数时间序列模型加权筛估计AI 解读

We study a class of nonparametric regression models that includes deterministic time trends and both stationary and nonstationary stochastic processes (whose shocks are allowed to be mutually correlated). We propose a unified approach to estimation based on the weighted sieve method to tackle the issue of unbounded support of the covariates. This approach improves on the existing technology in terms of some key regularity conditions such as moment conditions and the α-mixing…

半参数分位数因子模型的估计与推断AI 解读

We consider a semiparametric quantile factor panel model that allows observed stock-specific characteristics to affect stock returns in a nonlinear time-varying way, extending Connor, Hagmann, and Linton (2012) to the quantile restriction case. We propose a sieve-based estimation methodology that is easy to implement. We provide tools for inference that are robust to the existence of moments and to the form of weak cross-sectional dependence in the idiosyncratic error term.…

结合横截面与时间序列信息的债券价格非参数估计AI 解读

We develop a novel estimation methodology for an additive nonparametric panel model that is suitable for capturing the pricing of coupon-paying government bonds followed over many time periods. We use our model to estimate the discount function and yield curve of nominally riskless government bonds. The novelty of our approach is the combination of two different techniques: cross-sectional nonparametric methods and kernel estimation for time varying dynamics in the time…

一般处理模型有效估计的统一框架AI 解读

This paper presents a weighted optimization framework that unifies the binary, multivalued, and continuous treatment—as well as mixture of discrete and continuous treatment—under a unconfounded treatment assignment. With a general loss function, the framework includes the average, quantile, and asymmetric least squares causal effect of treatment as special cases. For this general framework, we first derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for the causal effect of…