Improvements in the estimation of the latent and infectious periods of a contagious disease
传染病潜伏期与传染期估计的改进
The contagious disease model proposed by Bailey (1956a, b) predicts the frequency distribution of time intervals between the appearance of subsequent cases. Using data from households of two or three susceptibles into which a disease, measles, had been introduced, Bailey used a maximum likelihood procedure to determine various disease parameters, for example, length of the latent and infectious periods. In the original calculations, a desk calculator scoring procedure was…