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Statistical testing under distributional shifts

分布偏移下的统计检验

Abstract We introduce statistical testing under distributional shifts. We are interested in the hypothesis P*∈H0 for a target distribution P*, but observe data from a different distribution Q*. We assume that P* is related to Q* through a known shift τ and formally introduce hypothesis testing in this setting. We propose a general testing procedure that first resamples from the observed data to construct an auxiliary data set (similarly to sampling importance resampling) and…

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Invariant Causal Prediction for Sequential Data

序贯数据的不变因果预测

We investigate the problem of inferring the causal predictors of a response Y from a set of d explanatory variables (X1, …, Xd). Classical ordinary least-square regression includes all predictors that reduce the variance of Y. Using only the causal predictors instead leads to models that have the advantage of remaining invariant under interventions; loosely speaking they lead to invariance across different “environments” or “heterogeneity patterns.” More precisely, the…

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Kernel-Based Tests for Joint Independence

基于核的联合独立性检验

Summary We investigate the problem of testing whether d possibly multivariate random variables, which may or may not be continuous, are jointly (or mutually) independent. Our method builds on ideas of the two-variable Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion but allows for an arbitrary number of variables. We embed the joint distribution and the product of the marginals in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and define the d-variable Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion dHSIC…

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