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含难以计算的归一化函数时的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Models with intractable normalizing functions arise frequently in statistics. Common examples of such models include exponential random graph models for social networks and Markov point processes for ecology and disease modeling. Inference for these models is complicated because the normalizing functions of their probability distributions include the parameters of interest. In Bayesian analysis, they result in so-called doubly intractable posterior distributions which pose…

利用高维二元空间数据校准冰盖模型AI 解读

Rapid retreat of ice in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica may cause drastic sea level rise, posing significant risks to populations in low-lying coastal regions. Calibration of computer models representing the behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is key for informative projections of future sea level rise. However, both the relevant observations and the model output are high-dimensional binary spatial data; existing computer model calibration methods are unable…

空间广义线性混合模型的降维与空间混杂缓解AI 解读

Summary Non-Gaussian spatial data are very common in many disciplines. For instance, count data are common in disease mapping, and binary data are common in ecology. When fitting spatial regressions for such data, one needs to account for dependence to ensure reliable inference for the regression coefficients. The spatial generalized linear mixed model offers a very popular and flexible approach to modelling such data, but this model suffers from two major shortcomings:…

马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛的固定宽度输出分析AI 解读

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample to estimate features of a target distribution through ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when sampling should stop; that is, at what point the ergodic averages are good estimates of the desired quantities. We consider a method that stops the simulation when the width of a confidence interval based on an ergodic average is less than a user-specified value. Hence calculating a Monte Carlo standard…