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注意你的语言：市场对央行讲话的反应AI 解读

Central bank communication between meetings often moves markets, but researchers have traditionally paid less attention to it. Using a dataset of U.S. Federal Reserve speeches, we develop supervised multimodal natural language processing methods to identify how monetary policy news affect bond and stock market volatility and tail risk through implied changes in forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment. We find that forecast revisions derived from FOMC-member speech can…

异质专业能力下的贝叶斯决策问题估计AI 解读

We consider the recent novel two-step estimator of Iaryczower and Shum (American Economic Review 2012; 102: 202–237), who analyze voting decisions of US Supreme Court justices. Motivated by the underlying theoretical voting model, we suggest that where the data under consideration display variation in the common prior, estimates of the structural parameters based on their methodology should generally benefit from including interaction terms between individual and time…