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函数参数的快速、公平同时置信带AI 解读

Abstract Quantifying uncertainty using confidence regions is a central goal of statistical inference. Despite this, methodologies for confidence bands in functional data analysis are still underdeveloped compared to estimation and hypothesis testing. In this work, we present a new methodology for constructing simultaneous confidence bands for functional parameter estimates. Our bands possess a number of positive qualities: (1) they are not based on resampling and thus are…

用扩展先验样本量评估先验影响及先验—似然不协调AI 解读

Abstract This paper outlines a framework for quantifying the prior’s contribution to posterior inference in the presence of prior-likelihood discordance, a broader concept than the usual notion of prior-likelihood conflict. We achieve this dual purpose by extending the classic notion of prior sample size, M, in three directions: (I) estimating M beyond conjugate families; (II) formulating M as a relative notion that is as a function of the likelihood sample size k, M(k),…

函数型参数置信域与置信带的几何方法AI 解读

Summary Functional data analysis is now a well-established discipline of statistics, with its core concepts and perspectives in place. Despite this, there are still fundamental statistical questions which have received relatively little attention. One of these is the systematic construction of confidence regions for functional parameters. This work is concerned with developing, understanding and visualizing such regions. We provide a general strategy for constructing…

时空均值函数变化的检测AI 解读

Summary The paper develops inferential methodology for detecting a change in the annual pattern of an environmental variable measured at fixed locations in a spatial region. Using a framework built on functional data analysis, we model observations as a collection of function-valued time sequences available at many sites. Each sequence is modelled as an annual mean function, which may change, plus a sequence of error functions, which are spatially correlated. The tests…

Quantifying heritability is the first step in understanding the contribution of genetic variation to the risk architecture of complex human diseases and traits. Heritability can be estimated for univariate phenotypes from nonfamily data using linear mixed effects models. There is, however, no fully developed methodology for defining or estimating heritability from longitudinal studies. By examining longitudinal studies, researchers have the opportunity to better understand…

多元时间序列模型协方差结构的突变检测AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce an asymptotic test procedure to assess the stability of volatilities and cross-volatilites of linear and nonlinear multivariate time series models. The test is very flexible as it can be applied, for example, to many of the multivariate GARCH models established in the literature, and also works well in the case of high dimensionality of the underlying data. Since it is nonparametric, the procedure avoids the difficulties associated with parametric…