Prediction of an Autoregressive Variable Subject Both to Disturbances and to Errors of Observation
同时存在扰动与观测误差的自回归变量预测
Past work on prediction formulas for time series, e.g., that of Wiener and Yaglom, has used powerful and general spectral techniques that result in integral formulas difficult to evaluate in practical cases. In this paper the more direct, less powerful approach developed by Muth produces useful and specific results for a broad class of cases that includes virtually every case of a higher order Markov process observed with error. The results provide plausible theoretical…