A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Model of Sequential Experimentation with Delayed Response
响应延迟下序贯实验的贝叶斯决策模型
Summary We propose a Bayesian decision theoretic model of a fully sequential experiment in which the real-valued primary end point is observed with delay. The goal is to identify the sequential experiment which maximizes the expected benefits of technology adoption decisions, minus sampling costs. The solution yields a unified policy defining the optimal ‘do not experiment’–‘fixed sample size experiment’–‘sequential experiment’ regions and optimal stopping boundaries for…