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In objective Bayesian model selection, no single criterion has emerged as dominant in defining objective prior distributions. Indeed, many criteria have been separately proposed and utilized to propose differing prior choices. We first formalize the most general and compelling of the various criteria that have been suggested, together with a new criterion. We then illustrate the potential of these criteria in determining objective model selection priors by considering their…

贝叶斯假设检验中基于 Jeffreys 散度的先验推广AI 解读

Summary We introduce objective proper prior distributions for hypothesis testing and model selection based on measures of divergence between the competing models; we call them divergence-based (DB) priors. DB priors have simple forms and desirable properties like information (finite sample) consistency and are often similar to other existing proposals like intrinsic priors. Moreover, in normal linear model scenarios, they reproduce the Jeffreys–Zellner–Siow priors exactly.…

具有函数型输出的计算机模型验证AI 解读

A key question in evaluation of computer models is Does the computer model adequately represent reality? A six-step process for computer model validation is set out in Bayarri et al. [Technometrics 49 (2007) 138–154] (and briefly summarized below), based on comparison of computer model runs with field data of the process being modeled. The methodology is particularly suited to treating the major issues associated with the validation process: quantifying multiple sources of…

复合原假设模型的p值AI 解读

The problem of investigating compatibility of an assumed model with the data is investigated in the situation when the assumed model has unknown parameters. The most frequently used measures of compatibility are p values, based on statistics T for which large values are deemed to indicate incompatibility of the data and the model. When the null model has unknown parameters, p values are not uniquely defined. The proposals for computing a p value in such a situation include…

选择模型的稳健贝叶斯分析AI 解读

Selection models arise when the data are selected to enter the sample only if they occur in a certain region of the sample space. When this selection occurs according to some probability distribution, the resulting model is often instead called a weighted distribution model. In either case the "original" density becomes multiplied by a "weight function" $w(x)$. Often there is considerable uncertainty concerning this weight function; for instance, it may be known only that $w$…

贝叶斯研究者如何预期彼此的信念AI 解读

Our goal is to study general properties of one Bayesian's subjective beliefs about the behavior of another Bayesian's subjective beliefs. We consider two Bayesians, A and B, who have different subjective distributions for a parameter θ, and study Bayesian A's expectation of Bayesian B's posterior distribution for θ given some data Y. We show that when θ can take only two values, Bayesian A always expects Bayesian B's posterior distribution to lie between the prior…

贝叶斯分析者如何预期彼此的信念AI 解读

Our goal is to study general properties of one Bayesian's subjective beliefs about the behavior of another Bayesian's subjective beliefs. We consider two Bayesians, A and B, who have different subjective distributions for a parameter θ, and study Bayesian A's expectation of Bayesian B's posterior distribution for θ given some data Y. We show that when θ can take only two values, Bayesian A always expects Bayesian B's posterior distribution to lie between the prior…

预测分布的最优报告AI 解读

Consider a problem in which you and a group of other experts must report your individual predictive distributions for an observable random variable X to some decision maker. Suppose that the report of each expert is assigned a prior weight by the decision maker and that these weights are then updated based on the observed value of X. In this situation you will try to maximize your updated, or posterior, weight by appropriately choosing the distribution that you report,…

预测分布的最优报告策略AI 解读

Consider a problem in which you and a group of other experts must report your individual predictive distributions for an observable random variable X to some decision maker. Suppose that the report of each expert is assigned a prior weight by the decision maker and that these weights are then updated based on the observed value of X. In this situation you will try to maximize your updated, or posterior, weight by appropriately choosing the distribution that you report,…