The Value of Better Weather Information to the Raisin Industry
更好天气信息对葡萄干产业的价值
This report utilizes decision theory to investigate the possible benefits of better weather information to California raisin growers. A supply curve is fitted to the raisin industry and used to evaluate the importance of various factors: weather is of overwhelming importance. Subsequent analysis focuses on the most vulnerable aspect of raisin production: its dependence on early forecasts of rain in September and October when the grapes are being dried and in danger of being…