Measuring the natural rate of interest: A note on transitory shocks
自然利率的测度：关于暂时冲击的说明
Summary We present evidence that the natural rate of interest is buffeted by both permanent and transitory shocks. We establish this result by estimating a benchmark model with Bayesian methods and loose priors on the unobserved drivers of the natural rate. When subject to transitory shocks, the median estimate for the US economy is more procyclical, displays a less marked secular decline, and is therefore higher following the Great Recession than most estimates in the…