What Happens Depends on When It Happens: Copula-Based Ordered Event History Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome
事件何时发生影响其结果：内战持续时间与结局的 Copula 有序事件史分析
Scholars are interested in not just what event happens but also when the event happens. If there is dependence among events or dependence between time and events, however, the currently common methods (e.g., competing risks approaches) produce biased estimates. To deal with these problems, this article proposes a new method of copula-based ordered event history analysis (COEHA). A merit of working with copulas is that, whatever marginal distributions time and event variables…