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Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighbourhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries

Abstract It is often desired to rank different populations according to the value of some feature of each population. For example, it may be desired to rank neighbourhoods according to some measure of intergenerational mobility or countries according to some measure of academic achievement. These rankings are invariably computed using estimates rather than the true values of these features. As a result, there may be considerable uncertainty concerning the rank of each…

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Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences

Abstract We study a class of permutation tests of the randomness of a collection of Bernoulli sequences and their application to analyses of the human tendency to perceive streaks of consecutive successes as overly representative of positive dependence—the hot hand fallacy. In particular, we study permutation tests of the null hypothesis of randomness (i.e. that trials are i.i.d.) based on test statistics that compare the proportion of successes that directly follow $k$ conse…

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Exact and Approximate Stepdown Methods for Multiple Hypothesis Testing

多重假设检验的精确与近似逐步下降方法

Consider the problem of testing k hypotheses simultaneously. In this article we discuss finite- and large-sample theory of stepdown methods that provide control of the familywise error rate (FWE). To improve on the Bonferroni method or on Holm's stepdown method, Westfall and Young made effective use of resampling to construct stepdown methods that implicitly estimate the dependence structure of the test statistics. However, their methods depend on an assumption known as…

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