Forecasts From Nonrandom Samples
非随机样本下的预测
The 1990s was not the best of decades for electoral polls, with striking errors occurring in, among others, the British, French, and Spanish elections, including election night, when errors are more evident. This article proposes a model for predicting final election outcomes based on the consistency that polling stations show between elections. Using both past and incoming polling station vote proportions, the model produces continuously revised predictions. The method is…