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均值乘积的估计：基于参考先验的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

Suppose that we observe X ∼ N(α, 1) and, independently, Y ∼ N(β, 1), and are concerned with inference (mainly estimation and confidence statements) about the product of means θ = αβ. This problem arises, most obviously, in situations of determining area based on measurements of length and width. It also arises in other practical contexts, however. For instance, in gypsy moth studies, the hatching rate of larvae per unit area can be estimated as the product of the mean of egg…

追踪1982年西班牙社会党胜选：贝叶斯分析AI 解读

An estimate of how people intended to vote was obtained four weeks before the Spanish general elections of October 1982. The evolution of opinion was followed during the campaign. Using a small sample of polling stations, the victory of the Spanish Socialist Party was predicted with great accuracy only two hours after the polls closed. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used.