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双动态最大 Copula 模型及其金融时间序列应用AI 解读

Accurately modeling time-varying dependence structures is essential for financial market analysis, particularly during periods of market stress. Recognizing that traditional copula models often fail to jointly capture dynamic dependence and tail behavior, this article proposes a double dynamic max-copula (DDMC) model that accommodates time variation while effectively characterizing tail dependence. To estimate the model, we introduce a maximum composite profile likelihood…

非平稳与周期时间序列的函数型半参数建模AI 解读

Inspired by a real data example illustrating the periodicity in hog price data, this study aims to analyze time series that exhibit an unknown period alongside complex covariate effects. To address these complexities and effectively handle the data structures, we incorporate the partial functional varying-coefficient single-index model into the classical time series decomposition model. We propose a two-stage estimation procedure designed to accurately estimate the unknown…

动态交互半参数函数对标量回归模型AI 解读

Motivated by recent work studying massive functional data, such as the COVID-19 data, we propose a new dynamic interaction semiparametric function-on-scalar (DISeF) model. The proposed model is useful to explore the dynamic interaction among a set of covariates and their effects on the functional response. The proposed model includes many important models investigated recently as special cases. By tensor product B-spline approximating the unknown bivariate coefficient…

可能存在多次周期结构变化的非平稳时间序列稳健推断AI 解读

Motivated by two examples concerning global warming and monthly total import and export by China, we study time series that contain a nonparametric periodic component with an unknown period, a nonparametric trending behavior and also additive covariate effects. Further, as the amplitude function may change at some known or unknown change-point(s), we extend our model to take this dynamical periodicity into account and introduce two change-point estimators. To the best of…

变系数面板数据模型的网络聚类方法AI 解读

In this article, we introduce a novel varying-coefficient panel-data model with locally stationary regressors and unknown group structure, in which the number of groups and the group membership are left unspecified. We develop a triple-localization approach to estimate the unknown subject-specific coefficient functions and then identify the latent group structure via community detection. To improve the efficiency of the first-stage estimator, we further propose a two-stage…

半参数尾指数回归AI 解读

Abstract–Understanding why extreme events occur is often of major scientific interest in many fields. The occurrence of these events naturally depends on explanatory variables, but there is a severe lack of flexible models with asymptotic theory for understanding this dependence, especially when variables can affect the outcome nonlinearly. This article proposes a novel semiparametric tail index regression model to fill the gap for this purpose. We construct consistent…

局部平稳过程变系数可加模型的估计与模型识别AI 解读

The additive model and the varying-coefficient model are both powerful regression tools, with wide practical applications. However, our empirical study on a financial data has shown that both of these models have drawbacks when applied to locally stationary time series. For the analysis of functional data, Zhang and Wang have proposed a flexible regression method, called the varying-coefficient additive model (VCAM), and presented a two-step spline estimation method.…

具有局部平稳回归变量的非参数固定效应面板模型AI 解读

We develop methods for inference in nonparametric time-varying fixed effects panel data models that allow for locally stationary regressors and for the time series length T and cross-section size N both being large. We first develop a pooled nonparametric profile least squares dummy variable approach to estimate the nonparametric function, and establish the optimal convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the resultant estimator. We then propose a test statistic to check…

固定效应面板似不相关部分线性回归的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper deals with statistical inference for the fixed effects panel data seemingly unrelated partially linear regression model. The model naturally extends the traditional fixed effects panel data regression model to allow for semiparametric effects. Multiple regression equations are permitted, and the model includes the aggregated partially linear model as a special case. A weighted profile least squares estimator for the parametric components is proposed and shown to…

固定效应面板部分线性可加回归模型的估计AI 解读

In this paper, we investigate the estimation problem of fixed effects panel data partially linear additive regression models. Semi‐parametric fixed effects panel data regression models are tools that are well suited to econometric analysis and the analysis of cDNA micro‐arrays. By applying a polynomial spline series approximation and a profile least‐squares procedure, we propose a semi‐parametric least‐squares dummy variables estimator (SLSDVE) for the parametric component…