Mapping Ancient Forests: Bayesian Inference for Spatio-Temporal Trends in Forest Composition Using the Fossil Pollen Proxy Record
古代森林制图：利用化石花粉记录推断森林组成的时空趋势
Ecologists use the relative abundance of fossil pollen in sediments to estimate how tree species abundances change over space and time. To predict historical forest composition and quantify the available information, we build a Bayesian hierarchical model of forest composition in central New England, USA, based on pollen in a network of ponds. The critical relationships between abundances of taxa in the pollen record and abundances as actual vegetation are estimated for the…