Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
基于集合预报与贝叶斯模型平均的风速概率预测
The current weather forecasting paradigm is deterministic, based on numerical models. Multiple estimates of the current state of the atmosphere are used to generate an ensemble of deterministic predictions. Ensemble forecasts, while providing information on forecast uncertainty, are often uncalibrated. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical ensemble postprocessing method that creates calibrated predictive probability density functions (PDFs). Probabilistic wind…