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极端事件估计的分布鲁棒优化框架AI 解读

Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult bias-variance tradeoff that exacerbates especially when data size is too small, deteriorating the reliability of the tail estimation. In this paper, we study a framework based on the recently surging literature of distributionally robust…

利用t统计量的Edgeworth展开分析分批方法的高阶覆盖误差AI 解读

While batching methods have been widely used in simulation and statistics, their higher-order coverage behaviors and relative advantages in this regard remain open. We develop techniques to obtain higher-order coverage errors for batching methods by building Edgeworth-type expansions on t-statistics. The coefficients in these expansions are intricate analytically, but we provide algorithms to estimate the coefficients of the n−1 error terms via Monte Carlo simulation. We…