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利用双重边缘化子抽样进行海量数据微观计量模型的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Bayesian inference with a large dataset is computationally intensive, as Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation requires a complete scan of the dataset for each proposed parameter update. To reduce the number of data points evaluated at each iteration of posterior simulation, we develop a double marginalized subsampling method, which is applicable to a wide array of microeconometric models including Tobit, Probit, regressions with non-Gaussian errors, heteroscedasticity and…

不等式约束状态空间模型AI 解读

The standard Kalman filter cannot handle inequality constraints imposed on the state variables, as state truncation induces a nonlinear and non-Gaussian model. We propose a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter with the optimal importance function for forward filtering and the likelihood function evaluation. The particle filter effectively enforces the state constraints when the Kalman filter violates them. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate excellent performance of the…

混频向量自回归的计算高效方法AI 解读

A linear transformation method is proposed to handle the vector autoregression with mixed frequency time series data. Temporally aggregated observations impose linear constraints on the distribution of latent variables, which are converted such that each observation replaces a latent variable. Full-sample transformation yields a closed-form simulation smoother, while partial-sample transformation leads to a computationally efficient sampler suitable for parallel computing.