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股票指数间的跳跃传染：来自期权市场的证据AI 解读

We analyze the contagious propagation of jumps among international stock market indices, using a rich panel of high-frequency stock and options data ( 692,892 option contracts) over the period 2006–2015. We propose a bivariate option pricing model designed to allow for time and space amplification of jumps in option markets. We develop a semi-parametric estimation procedure, which employs a continuum of moment conditions in GMM with implied states and non-parametric…

利用特征函数线性状态空间表示估计期权定价模型AI 解读

We develop a novel filtering and estimation procedure for parametric option pricing models driven by general affine jump-diffusions. Our procedure is based on the comparison between an option-implied, model-free representation of the conditional log-characteristic function and the model-implied conditional log-characteristic function, which is functionally affine in the model's state vector. We formally derive an associated linear state space representation and the…

非平稳波动率下的自适应协整检验AI 解读

This article develops a class of adaptive cointegration tests for multivariate time series with nonstationary volatility. Persistent changes in the innovation variance matrix of a vector autoregressive model lead to size distortions in conventional cointegration tests, which may be resolved using the wild bootstrap, as shown in recent work by Cavaliere, Rahbek, and Taylor. We show that it also leads to the possibility of constructing tests with higher power, by taking the…

非平稳随机波动率下的自助法AI 解读

In this paper we investigate to what extent the bootstrap can be applied to conditional mean models, such as regression or time series models, when the volatility of the innovations is random and possibly non-stationary. In fact, the volatility of many economic and financial time series displays persistent changes and possible non-stationarity. However, the theory of the bootstrap for such models has focused on deterministic changes of the unconditional variance and little…

卡特尔效应起止时间的判定AI 解读

Summary The begin and end dates of cartels are often ambiguous, despite competition authorities stating them with precision. The legally established infringement period(s) from documentary evidence need not coincide with the period(s) of actual cartel effects. In this paper, we show that misdating cartel effects leads to a (weak) overestimation of but‐for prices and an underestimation of overcharges. Total overcharges based on comparing but‐for prices to actual prices are a…

跳跃自激性的检验AI 解读

This paper extends the notion of self-excitation in jumps to a rich class of continuous time semimartingale models, proposes statistical tests to detect its presence in a discretely observed sample path at high frequency, and derives the tests’ asymptotic properties. Our statistical setting is semiparametric: except for necessary parametric assumptions on the jump size measure, the other components of the semimartingale model are left essentially unrestricted. We analyze the…

异方差向量自回归中的协整参数推断AI 解读

We consider estimation and hypothesis testing on the coefficients of the co-integrating relations and the adjustment coefficients in vector autoregressions driven by shocks which display both conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity of a quite general and unknown form. We show that the conventional results in Johansen (1996) for the maximum likelihood estimators and associated likelihood ratio tests derived under homoskedasticity do not in general hold under…

VAR 模型中协整秩的改进似然比检验AI 解读

We suggest improved tests for cointegration rank in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and develop asymptotic distribution theory and local power results. The tests are (quasi-)likelihood ratio tests based on a Gaussian likelihood, but as usual the asymptotic results do not require normally distributed innovations. Our tests differ from existing tests in two respects. First, instead of basing our tests on the conditional (with respect to the initial observations)…

利用高频金融数据估计瞬时波动率AI 解读

We construct a spot volatility estimator for high-frequency financial data which contain market microstructure noise. We prove consistency and derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimator. A data-driven method is proposed to select the scale parameter and the bandwidth parameter in the estimator. In Monte Carlo simulations, we compare the finite sample performance of our estimator with some existing estimators. Empirical examples are given to illustrate the potential…

为什么采样频率会影响金融时间序列的单位根检验AI 解读

It is generally believed that the power of unit root tests is determined only by the time span of observations, not by their sampling frequency. We show that the sampling frequency does matter for stock data displaying fat tails and volatility clustering, such as financial time series. Our claim builds on recent work on unit root testing based on non-Gaussian GARCH-based likelihood functions. Such methods yield power gains in the presence of fat tails and volatility…

GO-GARCH 模型的矩估计AI 解读

We propose a new estimation method for the factor loading matrix in generalized orthogonal GARCH (GO-GARCH) models. The method is based on eigenvectors of suitably defined sample autocorrelation matrices of squares and cross-products of returns. The method is numerically more attractive than likelihood-based estimation. Furthermore, the new method does not require strict assumptions on the volatility models of the factors, and therefore is less sensitive to model…

多重协整的混合正态推断AI 解读

Asymptotic likelihood analysis of cointegration in I (2) models (see Johansen, 1997, 2006; Boswijk, 2000; Paruolo, 2000) has shown that inference on most parameters is mixed normal, implying hypothesis test statistics with an asymptotic χ 2 null distribution. The asymptotic distribution of the multicointegration parameter estimator so far has been characterized by a Brownian motion functional, which has been conjectured to have a mixed normal distribution, based on…

历史视角下的协整AI 解读

We analyse the impact of the Engle and Granger (1987) article by means of its citations over time, and find evidence of a second life starting in the new millennium. Next, we propose a possible explanation of the success of this citation classic. We argue that the conditions for its success were just right at the time of its appearance, because of the growing emphasis on time series properties in econometric modelling, the empirical importance of stochastic trends, the…

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含平稳外生回归变量的协整检验：分布近似AI 解读

Abstract The distribution of a functional of two correlated vector‐Brownian motions is approximated by a Gamma distribution. This functional represents the limiting distribution for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors, but also for cointegration tests based on a non‐Gaussian likelihood. The approximation is accurate, fast and easy to use in comparison with both tabulated critical values and simulated p ‐values. The proposed procedure is applied to a UK…

Bass扩散模型的计量经济学问题AI 解读

The parsimonious Bass diffusion model is frequently used to forecast adoptions of new products and to compare the life cycles of specific products across countries. To meet these goals, reliable parameter estimates are needed. We develop the asymptotic theory for the three key parameters in the Bass model. For this purpose, we need to make assumptions about the stochastic error process. On doing so, we arrive at an alternative version of the Bass model than the one usually…

I(2) 系统中的混合正态性与辅助性AI 解读

This paper studies asymptotic likelihood inference on cointegration parameters in systems integrated of order two. We start with so-called triangular systems and then extend the analysis to vector autoregressions. We show that even when all unit root restrictions have been imposed, the asymptotic observed information is not (locally) ancillary, which implies that the log-likelihood ratio is not locally asymptotically mixed normal. The results are applied to inference on…

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协整向量可识别性的检验AI 解读

This paper analyzes the identification and normalization of cointegrating vectors. Normalizing a cointegrating relation with respect to one of the relevant variables is with loss of generality; and restrictions which are supposed to identify a vector may fail to do so for particular parameter values. The author proposes to tackle both problems by testing whether particular rank conditions are violated. He shows that S. Johansen and K. Juselius's (1992) class of likelihood…

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