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替代指标指数：结合短期代理更快、更精确地估计长期处理效应AI 解读

Abstract A common challenge in estimating the impact of interventions (e.g. job training programmes, educational programmes) is that many outcomes of interest (e.g. lifetime earnings or other labour market outcomes) are observed with a long delay. In biomedical settings, this is often addressed by using short-term outcomes as so-called “surrogates” for the outcome of interest, e.g. tumour size as a surrogate for mortality in cancer studies. We build on this literature by…

固定效应与广义 Mundlak 估计量AI 解读

Abstract We develop a new approach for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies with unobserved group-level heterogeneity. We consider a general model with group-level unconfoundedness and provide conditions under which aggregate balancing statistics—group-level averages of functions of treatments and covariates—are sufficient to eliminate differences between groups. Building on these results, we re-interpret commonly used linear fixed-effect regression…

随机实验中处理效应的半参数估计AI 解读

Abstract We develop new semi-parametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large, and where assignment is completely random. This setting is of particular interest in recent online experimentation. We propose using parametric models for the treatment effects, leading to semi-parametric models for the outcome distributions. We derive…

因果面板数据模型的双重稳健识别AI 解读

Summary We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally, researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and the observed and unobserved confounders. We focus on a different, complementary approach to identification, where assumptions are made about the connection between the treatment assignment and the unobserved confounders. Such…

贝叶斯推断的非参数应用AI 解读

Bayesian inference by presenting two applications. Our first application considers an educational choice problem. We focus on obtaining a predictive distribution for earnings corresponding to various levels of schooling. This predictive distribution incorporates the parameter uncertainty, so that it is relevant for decision making under uncertainty in the expected utility framework of microeconomics. The second application is to quantile regression. Our point here is to…

广义矩估计与经验似然AI 解读

Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation has become an important unifying framework for inference in econometrics in the last 20 years. It can be thought of as encompassing almost all of the common estimation methods, such as maximum likelihood, ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and two-stage least squares, and nowadays is an important part of all advanced econometrics textbooks. The GMM approach links nicely to economic theory where orthogonality…

经典及其他形式测量误差导致的偏差AI 解读

We consider the implications of an alternative to the classical measurement-error model, in which the observed, mismeasured data are optimal predictions of the true values, given some information set. In this model, any measurement error is uncorrelated with the reported value and, by necessity, correlated with the true value of interest. In a regression model, such measurement error in the regressor does not lead to bias, whereas measurement error in the dependent variable…

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