On minimax optimality of sparse Bayes predictive density estimates
稀疏贝叶斯预测密度估计的极小极大最优性
We study predictive density estimation under Kullback–Leibler loss in ℓ0-sparse Gaussian sequence models. We propose proper Bayes predictive density estimates and establish asymptotic minimaxity in sparse models. Fundamental for this is a new risk decomposition for sparse, or spike-and-slab priors. A surprise is the existence of a phase transition in the future-to-past variance ratio r. For r