March Madness, Quantile Regression Bracketology, and the Hayek Hypothesis
疯狂三月、分位数回归对阵预测与哈耶克假说
A quantile regression variant of the classical paired comparison model of mean ratings is proposed. The model is estimated using data for the regular 2004–2005 U.S. college basketball season, and evaluated based on predictive performance for the 2005 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball tournament. Rather than basing predictions entirely on conditional mean estimates produced by classical least-squares paired comparison methods, the proposed methods…