Predictive Accuracy of Quarterly and Annual Aggregate Saving Functions
季度与年度总量储蓄函数的预测准确性
Aggregate saving functions have been grouped into several models which have similar theoretical underpinnings. They are then tested under criteria pertaining to their predictive accuracy and their economic reasonableness. It is found that saving is predicted much more accurately when it includes net investment in consumer durables (i.e., “use value” saving, D S) as opposed to when it is defined as only personal saving (S). In predicting D S, the functions which use current…