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Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regression

多元回归的最小体积保形预测集

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables, existing multivariate methods either impose rigid geometric assumptions or rely on flexible but computationally expensive approaches that do not explicitly optimize prediction set volume. We propose an optimization-driven framework based on a novel loss function that directly learns…

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Bridging the gap between constant step size stochastic gradient descent and Markov chains

连接恒定步长随机梯度下降与马尔可夫链

We consider the minimization of a strongly convex objective function given access to unbiased estimates of its gradient through stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with constant step size. While the detailed analysis was only performed for quadratic functions, we provide an explicit asymptotic expansion of the moments of the averaged SGD iterates that outlines the dependence on initial conditions, the effect of noise and the step size, as well as the lack of convergence in the…

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Nonparametric stochastic approximation with large step-sizes

采用大步长的非参数随机逼近

We consider the random-design least-squares regression problem within the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) framework. Given a stream of independent and identically distributed input/output data, we aim to learn a regression function within an RKHS $\mathcal{H}$, even if the optimal predictor (i.e., the conditional expectation) is not in $\mathcal{H}$. In a stochastic approximation framework where the estimator is updated after each observation, we show that the…

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