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政党如何推动美国政治极化：1927—2018AI 解读

The current polarization of elites in the U.S., particularly in Congress, is frequently ascribed to the emergence of cohorts of ideologically extreme legislators replacing moderate ones.Politicians, however, do not operate as isolated agents, driven solely by their preferences.They act within organized parties, whose leaders exert control over the rank-and-file, directing support for and against policies.This paper shows that the omission of party discipline as a driver of…

叛乱与小规模战争：不可观测联盟结构的估计AI 解读

Insurgency and guerrilla warfare impose enormous socio‐economic costs and often persist for decades. The opacity of such forms of conflict is an obstacle to effective international humanitarian intervention and development programs. To shed light on the internal organization of otherwise unknown insurgent groups, this paper proposes two methodologies for the detection of unobserved coalitions of militants in conflict areas. These approaches are based on daily geocoded…