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预测 VIX 与波动率风险溢价：短期融资利差波动因子的作用AI 解读

This paper presents an innovative approach to extract Volatility Factors which predict the VIX, the S&P500 Realized Volatility (RV) and the Variance Risk Premium (VRP). The approach is innovative along two different dimensions, namely: (1) we extract Volatility Factors from panels of filtered volatilities — in particular large panels of univariate ARCH-type models and propose methods to estimate common Volatility Factors in the presence of estimation error and (2) we price…

MIDAS 回归中高频波动率度量的使用AI 解读

Many empirical studies link mixed data frequency variables such as low frequency macroeconomic or financial variables with high frequency financial indicators’ volatilities, especially within a predictive regression model context. The objective of this paper is threefold: First, we relate the standard Least Squares (LS) regression model with high frequency volatility predictors, with the corresponding Mixed Data Sampling Nonlinear LS (MIDAS-NLS) regression model (Ghysels et…

AR–GARCH 类模型的残差秩设定检验AI 解读

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a number of rank-based and classical residual specification tests in AR–GARCH type models. We consider tests for the null hypotheses of no linear and quadratic serial residual autocorrelation, residual symmetry, and no structural breaks. We also apply our method to backtesting Value-at-Risk. For these tests we show that, generally, no size correction is needed in the asymptotic test distribution when applied to AR–GARCH…

非参数预测回归AI 解读

A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The limit distribution of these predictive tests is nuisance parameter free and holds for a wide range of predictors including stationary as well as non-stationary fractional and near unit root processes. Asymptotic theory and simulations show that…

评论AI 解读

The article by Hu and Tsay (2013) relates to an important area of research on analyzing multivariate time series with dynamic heteroscedasticity and addresses the dimensionality problem of traditio...

宏观预测者是否应使用日度金融数据，以及如何使用？AI 解读

We introduce easy-to-implement, regression-based methods for predicting quarterly real economic activity that use daily financial data and rely on forecast combinations of mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We also extract a novel small set of daily financial factors from a large panel of about 1000 daily financial assets. Our analysis is designed to elucidate the value of daily financial information and provide real-time forecast updates of the current (nowcasting)…

残差统计量的一种替代渐近分析方法AI 解读

This paper presents an alternative method to derive the limiting distribution of residual-based statistics. Our method does not impose an explicit assumption of (asymptotic) smoothness of the statistic of interest with respect to the model's parameters and thus is especially useful in cases where such smoothness is difficult to establish. Instead, we use a locally uniform convergence in distribution condition, which is automatically satisfied by residual-based specification…

混合采样频率回归模型AI 解读

We study regression models that involve data sampled at different frequencies. We derive the asymptotic properties of the NLS estimators of such regression models and compare them with the LS estimators of a traditional model that involves aggregating or equally weighting data to estimate a model at the same sampling frequency. In addition we propose new tests to examine the null hypothesis of equal weights in aggregating time series in a regression model. We explore the…

金融市场波动率动态中的多重结构突变检测AI 解读

Abstract The paper evaluates the performance of several recently proposed tests for structural breaks in the conditional variance dynamics of asset returns. The tests apply to the class of ARCH and SV type processes as well as data‐driven volatility estimators using high‐frequency data. In addition to testing for the presence of breaks, the statistics identify the number and location of multiple breaks. We study the size and power of the new tests for detecting breaks in the…

滚动样本波动率估计量AI 解读

We propose extensions of the continuous record asymptotic analysis for rolling sample variance estimators developed for estimating the quadratic variation of asset returns, referred to as integrated or realized volatility. We treat integrated volatility as a continuous time stochastic process sampled at high frequencies and suggest rolling sample estimators which share many features with spot volatility estimators. We discuss asymptotically efficient window lengths and…