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稳健的已实现积分贝塔估计及其动态分析AI 解读

In this paper, we develop a robust non-parametric realized integrated beta estimator using high-frequency financial data contaminated by microstructure noise, which is robust to the stylized features, such as the time-varying beta and the price-dependent and autocorrelated microstructure noise. With this robust realized integrated beta estimator, we investigate dynamic structures of integrated betas and find a persistent autoregressive structure. To model this dynamic…

日内瞬时波动率向量的矩阵预测方法AI 解读

In this article, we introduce a novel method for predicting intraday instantaneous volatility based on Itô semimartingale models using high-frequency financial data. Several studies have highlighted stylized volatility time series features, such as interday auto-regressive dynamics and the intraday U-shaped pattern. To accommodate these volatility features, we propose an interday-by-intraday instantaneous volatility matrix process that can be decomposed into low-rank…

利用观测结构信息估计全球金融市场的大规模波动矩阵AI 解读

In this article, we develop a novel large volatility matrix estimation procedure for analyzing global financial markets. Practitioners often use lower-frequency data, such as weekly or monthly returns, to address the issue of different trading hours in the international financial market. However, this approach can lead to inefficiency due to information loss. To mitigate this problem, our proposed method, called Structured Principal Orthogonal complEment Thresholding…

重尾高频金融观测下的因子与特异性 VAR 波动率矩阵模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel process for both factor and idiosyncratic volatility matrices whose eigenvalues follow the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model. We call it the factor and idiosyncratic VAR (FIVAR) model. The FIVAR model accounts for the dynamics of the factor and idiosyncratic volatilities and includes many parameters. In addition, many empirical studies have shown that high-frequency stock returns and volatilities often exhibit heavy tails. To handle these two…

稳健的高维时变系数估计AI 解读

In this article, we develop a novel high-dimensional coefficient estimation procedure based on high-frequency data. Unlike usual high-dimensional regression procedures such as LASSO, we additionally handle the heavy-tailedness of high-frequency observations as well as time variations of coefficient processes. Specifically, we employ the Huber loss and a truncation scheme to handle heavy-tailed observations, while $\ell _{1}$ -regularization is adopted to overcome the curse…

动态已实现最小方差投资组合模型AI 解读

This article introduces a dynamic minimum variance portfolio (MVP) model using nonlinear volatility dynamic models, based on high-frequency financial data. Specifically, we impose an autoregressive dynamic structure on MVP processes, which helps capture the MVP dynamics directly. To evaluate the dynamic MVP model, we estimate the inverse volatility matrix using the constrained l1-minimization for inverse matrix estimation (CLIME) and calculate daily realized non-normalized…

指数已实现 GARCH–Itô 波动率模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel Itô diffusion process to model high-frequency financial data that can accommodate low-frequency volatility dynamics by embedding the discrete-time nonlinear exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) structure with log-integrated volatility in a continuous instantaneous volatility process. The key feature of the proposed model is that, unlike existing GARCH-Itô models, the instantaneous volatility process has a…

基于高频金融数据的大型波动率矩阵自适应稳健估计AI 解读

Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order moment assumption for observed log-returns, which cannot account for the heavy-tail phenomenon of stock-returns. Recently, a robust estimator was developed to handle heavy-tailed distributions with some bounded fourth-moment assumption.…

隔夜 GARCH–Itô 波动率模型AI 解读

Various parametric volatility models for financial data have been developed to incorporate high-frequency realized volatilities and better capture market dynamics. However, because high-frequency trading data are not available during the close-to-open period, the volatility models often ignore volatility information over the close-to-open period and thus may suffer from loss of important information relevant to market dynamics. In this article, to account for whole-day…

利用全球与国家因子分析大型波动率矩阵AI 解读

Several large volatility matrix inference procedures have been developed, based on the latent factor model. They often assumed that there are a few of common factors, which can account for volatility dynamics. However, several studies have demonstrated the presence of local factors. In particular, when analyzing the global stock market, we often observe that nation-specific factors explain their own country’s volatility dynamics. To account for this, we propose the Double…

基于已实现GARCH–Itô模型的波动率分析AI 解读

This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump–diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in the continuous instantaneous volatility process. The key feature of the proposed model is that the corresponding conditional daily integrated volatility adopts an autoregressive structure, where both integrated volatility and jump variation…

非同步高频金融数据的结构化波动率矩阵估计AI 解读

Several large volatility matrix estimation procedures have been recently developed for factor-based Itô processes whose integrated volatility matrix consists of low-rank and sparse matrices. Their performance depends on the accuracy of input volatility matrix estimators. When estimating co-volatilities based on high-frequency data, one of the crucial challenges is non-synchronization for illiquid assets, which makes their co-volatility estimators inaccurate. In this paper,…

高频数据的因子GARCH–Itô模型与大型波动率矩阵预测AI 解读

Several novel large volatility matrix estimation methods have been developed based on the high-frequency financial data. They often employ the approximate factor model that leads to a low-rank plus sparse structure for the integrated volatility matrix and facilitates estimation of large volatility matrices. However, for predicting future volatility matrices, these nonparametric estimators do not have a dynamic structure to implement. In this paper, we introduce a novel Itô…

高频因子模型中高维波动率矩阵的稳健估计AI 解读

High-frequency financial data allow us to estimate large volatility matrices with relatively short time horizon. Many novel statistical methods have been introduced to address large volatility matrix estimation problems from a high-dimensional Itô process with microstructural noise contamination. Their asymptotic theories require sub-Gaussian or some finite high-order moments assumptions for observed log-returns. These assumptions are at odd with the heavy tail phenomenon…

基于高频金融数据的大维波动率矩阵自适应阈值估计AI 解读

Universal thresholding methods have been developed to estimate the large sparse integrated volatility matrix of underlying assets based on high-frequency financial data. Since the integrated volatility matrix often has entries with a wide range of variability, universal thresholding estimators do not take the varying entries into consideration and may have unsatisfactory performances. This paper investigates adaptive thresholding estimation of the large integrated volatility…

融合低频与高频金融数据的统一离散时间和连续时间模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a unified model, which can accommodate both continuous-time Itô processes used to model high-frequency stock prices and GARCH processes employed to model low-frequency stock prices, by embedding a discrete-time GARCH volatility in its continuous-time instantaneous volatility. This model is called a unified GARCH-Itô model. We adopt realized volatility estimators based on high-frequency financial data and the quasi-likelihood function for the…

基于 Pauli 测量的最优大规模量子态层析AI 解读

Quantum state tomography aims to determine the state of a quantum system as represented by a density matrix. It is a fundamental task in modern scientific studies involving quantum systems. In this paper, we study estimation of high-dimensional density matrices based on Pauli measurements. In particular, under appropriate notion of sparsity, we establish the minimax optimal rates of convergence for estimation of the density matrix under both the spectral and Frobenius norm…