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欧洲经济共同体生产调查预期的形成与预测表现：时间序列研究AI 解读

This article provides an empirical analysis of manufacturers' survey responses on short-term production expectations. If such surveys provide valid anticipations of production activity in customer industries, they should be valuable information to management in supplier industries. Two major questions are considered: (a) Are survey expectations valid predictors of future production activity as reported later by the manufacturers and/or as measured by official statistics? (b)…

有理分布滞后结构模型中的滞后设定AI 解读

This article presents methods for the preliminary specification of distributed lags in structural models in the absence of sufficient a priori information. It is argued that an instrumental-variables procedure produces good results as long as the goodness of fit in the instrument equations is satisfactory. When this is not the case, simple OLS specification is preferable to more complex instrumental-variables methods, even though it may produce some spurious parameters. The…

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