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格点上高维随机场的一般时空因子模型AI 解读

Motivated by the need for analysing large spatio-temporal panel data, we introduce a novel nonparametric methodology for n-dimensional random fields observed across S spatial locations and T time periods. We call it general spatio-temporal factor model (GSTFM). First, we provide the probabilistic and mathematical underpinning needed for the representation of a random field as the sum of two components: the common component (driven by a small number q of latent factors) and…

依赖数据的高阶正确快速移动平均自助法AI 解读

We develop the theory of a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme deploys i.i.d. resampling of smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semiparametric estimation problems for which the method is valid. We show the asymptotic refinements of the new procedure, proving that it is higher-order correct under mild assumptions on the time series, the estimating functions, and the smoothing kernel. We illustrate the applicability and the…

空间面板数据模型的鞍点近似AI 解读

We develop new higher-order asymptotic techniques for the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator in a spatial panel data model, with fixed effects, time-varying covariates, and spatially correlated errors. Our saddlepoint density and tail area approximation feature relative error of order O(1/(n(T−1))) with n being the cross-sectional dimension and T the time-series dimension. The main theoretical tool is the tilted-Edgeworth technique in a nonidentically distributed setting.…

结合横截面与时间序列信息的债券价格非参数估计AI 解读

We develop a novel estimation methodology for an additive nonparametric panel model that is suitable for capturing the pricing of coupon-paying government bonds followed over many time periods. We use our model to estimate the discount function and yield curve of nominally riskless government bonds. The novelty of our approach is the combination of two different techniques: cross-sectional nonparametric methods and kernel estimation for time varying dynamics in the time…

半参数持续期模型的简便秩估计方法AI 解读

Modeling nonnegative financial variables (e.g. durations between trades or volatilities) is central to a number of studies across econometrics, and still poses several statistical challenges. Among them, the efficiency aspects of semiparametric estimation remain pivotal. In this paper, we concentrate on estimation problems in autoregressive conditional duration models with unspecified innovation densities. Exponential quasi-likelihood estimators (QMLE) are the usual practice…

短记忆与长记忆时间序列的鞍点近似：频域方法AI 解读

Saddlepoint techniques provide numerically accurate, small sample approximations to the distribution of estimators and test statistics. Except for a few simple models, these approximations are not available in the framework of stationary time series. We contribute to fill this gap. Under short or long range serial dependence, for Gaussian and non Gaussian processes, we show how to derive and implement saddlepoint approximations for two relevant classes of frequency domain…

半参数动态位置—尺度模型的秩估计AI 解读

We propose rank-based estimation (R-estimators) as an alternative to Gaussian quasi-likelihood and standard semiparametric estimation in time series models, where conditional location and/or scale depend on a Euclidean parameter of interest, while the unspecified innovation density is a nuisance. We show how to construct R-estimators achieving semiparametric efficiency at some predetermined reference density while preserving root-n consistency and asymptotic normality…

实现波动率微笑：利用已实现波动率进行期权定价AI 解读

We develop a discrete-time stochastic volatility option pricing model exploiting the information contained in the Realized Volatility (RV), which is used as a proxy of the unobservable log-return volatility. We model the RV dynamics by a simple and effective long-memory process, whose parameters can be easily estimated using historical data. Assuming an exponentially affine stochastic discount factor, we obtain a fully analytic change of measure. An empirical analysis of…

高阶无穷小稳健性AI 解读

Using the von Mises expansion, we study the higher-order infinitesimal robustness of a general M-functional and characterize its second-order properties. We show that second-order robustness is equivalent to the boundedness of both the estimator’s estimating function and its derivative with respect to the parameter. It implies, at the same time, (i) variance robustness and (ii) robustness of higher-order saddlepoint approximations to the estimator’s finite sample density.…

扩散过程的无穷小稳健性AI 解读

We develop infinitesimally robust statistical procedures for the general diffusion processes. We first prove the existence and uniqueness of the times-series influence function of conditionally unbiased M-estimators for ergodic and stationary diffusions, under weak conditions on the (martingale) estimating function used. We then characterize the robustness of M-estimators for diffusions and derive a class of conditionally unbiased optimal robust estimators. To compute these…