Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences
热手谬误中的不确定性：识别偏离随机伯努利序列的连胜模式
Abstract We study a class of permutation tests of the randomness of a collection of Bernoulli sequences and their application to analyses of the human tendency to perceive streaks of consecutive successes as overly representative of positive dependence—the hot hand fallacy. In particular, we study permutation tests of the null hypothesis of randomness (i.e. that trials are i.i.d.) based on test statistics that compare the proportion of successes that directly follow $k$ conse…