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Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates

This article estimates autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models for five foreign currencies, using 10 years of daily data, a variety of ARCH and GARCH specifications, a number of nonnormal error densities, and a comprehensive set of diagnostic checks. It finds that ARCH and GARCH models can usually remove all heteroscedasticity in price changes in all five currencies. Goodness-of-fit diagnostics indicate that exponential GARCH…

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Monte Carlo Evidence on Adaptive Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Regression

回归自适应最大似然估计的 Monte Carlo 证据

This paper reports Monte Carlo evidence on the fixed sample size properties of adaptive maximum likelihood estimates of a linear regression. The focus is on the problem of selecting the smoothing and trimming parameters used in estimating the score function. We examine the performance of adaptive maximum likelihood estimators when these parameters are preselected or, alternatively, are determined by a data-based bootstrap method.

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Estimation of Response Probabilities from Augmented Retrospective Observations

利用增补辅助信息的回溯观测估计响应概率

When augmented by suitable auxiliary information, retrospective data can identify response probabilities. The auxiliary information may take the form of data on marginal distributions or appropriate structural assumptions. When a combination of retrospective observation and auxiliary information suffices in principle to identify response probabilities, practical use of this fact requires that statistically sound and computationally tractable estimation methods be available.…

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