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技术变化的计量建模AI 解读

The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to econometric modeling of substitution and technical change. Substitution is determined by observable variables, such as prices of output and inputs and shares of inputs in the value of output. Our principal innovation is to represent the rate and biases of technical change by unobservable or latent variables. This representation is considerably more flexible than the constant time trends employed in the previous…

消费与劳动供给AI 解读

We present a new econometric model of aggregate demand and labor supply for the United States. We also analyze the allocation full wealth among time periods for households distinguished by a variety of demographic characteristics. The model is estimated using micro-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys supplemented with price information obtained from the Consumer Price Index. An important feature of our approach is that aggregate demands and labor supply can be…

政府项目的生活成本指数化调整AI 解读

This article presents social cost-of-living indexes constructed from an econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior. The econometric price index has the same average inflation rate as a Tornqvist price index over the period 1947-95 but rises less rapidly after 1973. Group cost-of-living indexes are presented for white and nonwhite, male- and female-headed, and elderly and nonelderly households. Elderly households have experienced a slightly higher rate of inflation than…

两阶段预算与精确加总AI 解读

This paper presents an econometric model of demand for energy based on two-stage budgeting. The model provides own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for energy and nonenergy commodities for the United States. These elasticities are estimated separately for households classified by family size, age of head, region, race, and urban versus rural residence. Price elasticities are presented conditional on total energy expenditure and total expenditure on all…

总量消费者行为与家庭等价尺度AI 解读

This article presents estimates of household equivalence scales, broken down by demographic characteristics, of U.S. households. Separate estimates are given by family size, age of head, region, race, and urban versus rural residence. Commodity-specific scales are presented for five separate commodity groups—energy, food, consumer goods, capital services, and other services. The estimates are obtained from an econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior. The parameters…

摘要暂缺

季度投资行为计量模型的预测表现AI 解读

In this paper four alternative quarterly econometric models of investment behavior are compared with regard to predictive performance. Predictive performance may be assessed in two ways: (i) We compare prediction errors for a period of prediction with errors for a period of fit. (ii) We fit investment functions for both periods and test for structural change. These two procedures may be viewed as alternative tests of the hypothesis of structural change; the second is more…

季度投资行为的替代计量模型比较AI 解读

In this paper four alternative quarterly econometric models of investment behavior are fitted to a common set of data for individual manufacturing industries in the United States. Goodness of fit and absence of autocorrelation of errors are used as a basis for comparison of the performance of the alternative models. The econometric models are compared with each other and with alternative explanations of data on investment based on surveys of anticipated investment and on…

摘要暂缺

用于计量经济分析的数据季节调整AI 解读

An earlier paper [3] provides axioms for the seasonal adjustment of economic time series. Seasonally adjusted data should be minimum variance, unbiased, and linear in an appropriate sense. These axioms yield a unique method for seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted data may be obtained by an application of ordinary least squares regression.1 The problem of seasonal adjustment of economic time series in [3] is not the same as the problem of seasonal adjustment of data…

用于计量经济分析的数据季节调整AI 解读

An earlier paper [3] provides axioms for the seasonal adjustment of economic time series. Seasonally adjusted data should be minimum variance, unbiased, and linear in an appropriate sense. These axioms yield a unique method for seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted data may be obtained by an application of ordinary least squares regression.1 The problem of seasonal adjustment of economic time series in [3] is not the same as the problem of seasonal adjustment of data…

摘要暂缺

经济时间序列的最小方差线性无偏季节调整AI 解读

A statistical theory based on the general linear statistical model is developed for seasonal adjustment of economic (and other) time series. A method for seasonal adjustment may be represented as taking place in two steps. The first step is to estimate the unknown parameters of the seasonal component of the series; the second step is to remove the estimated seasonal component from the set of observations. For the unique minimum variance, linear, unbiased method for seasonal…

泊松过程的多元回归分析AI 解读

A multiple regression model based on the Poisson density is discussed. Point estimation by maximum likelihood results in estimating equations which can be solved by iteration based on scoring or on a successively revised weighted least squares estimator. The first round of each iterative process is shown to be BAN, provided that the ordinary least squares estimator is used as the initial condition. A minimum chi-squared estimator, which can be computed directly from sample…