The Predictive Utility of Generalized Expected Utility Theories
广义期望效用理论的预测价值
Recent experimental choice studies compare expected utility with competing theories of decision-making under risk. Formal tests used to judge the theories usually count the number of consistent responses, ignoring systematic variation in inconsistent responses. A maximum-likelihood estimation method is developed that extracts more information from the data and enables one to judge the predictive utility--fit and parsimony--of utility theories. Analyses of twenty-three data…