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相互依赖专家的多变量概率评估AI 解读

When two or more information sources (“experts”) provide a decision maker with information on two or more random variables, the decision maker using Bayes's rule has an opportunity to (a) update a prior about the random variables and (b) calibrate the experts. (Calibration is the process of adjusting the decision maker's likelihood about the experts' assessments.) This article presents a model for this two-way process and specializes to the case in which the experts'…

相关专家的多重概率评估AI 解读

When two or more information sources (“experts”) provide a decision maker with information on two or more random variables, the decision maker using Bayes's rule has an opportunity to (a) update a prior about the random variables and (b) calibrate the experts. (Calibration is the process of adjusting the decision maker's likelihood about the experts' assessments.) This article presents a model for this two-way process and specializes to the case in which the experts'…