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混合谱时间序列的半参数贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Summary A Bayesian analysis is presented of a time series which is the sum of a stationary component with a smooth spectral density and a deterministic component consisting of a linear combination of a trend and periodic terms. The periodic terms may have known or unknown frequencies. The advantage of our approach is that different features of the data—such as the regression parameters, the spectral density, unknown frequencies and missing observations—are combined in a…

状态空间模型的吉布斯抽样AI 解读

We show how to use the Gibbs sampler to carry out Bayesian inference on a linear state space model with errors that are a mixture of normals and coefficients that can switch over time. Our approach simultaneously generates the whole of the state vector given the mixture and coefficient indicator variables and simultaneously generates all the indicator variables conditional on the state vectors. The states are generated efficiently using the Kalman filter. We illustrate our…

非参数回归中方差估计量的比较AI 解读

SUMMARY We compare two estimators of error variance, both based on quadratic forms in the residuals about smoothing spline fits to data. The estimators are compared over the whole range of values of the smoothing parameter as well as for data-based choices of the smoothing parameter. We show that the commonly used estimator of variance has the serious drawback of underestimating the error variance for small choices of the smoothing parameter. This drawback is not shared by a…

Reinsch 样条与 Speckman 样条的比较AI 解读

In the context of nonparametric regression, spline smoothers can be used both for the estimation of the curve itself and for the estimation of the error variance. We compare two approaches that have been suggested: the Reinsch spline, i.e. roughness penalty, and the Speckman spline, minimax. The comparison is made on the basis of the summed mean squared error for curve estimation and on the basis of a closely related criterion for variance estimation. We show in both…

Reinsch 与 Speckman 样条的比较AI 解读

In the context of nonparametric regression, spline smoothers can be used both for the estimation of the curve itself and for the estimation of the error variance. We compare two approaches that have been suggested: the Reinsch spline, i.e. roughness penalty, and the Speckman spline, minimax. The comparison is made on the basis of the summed mean squared error for curve estimation and on the basis of a closely related criterion for variance estimation. We show in both…