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用于资金分配的数据的效益成本分析AI 解读

0 Introduction.- 1 Loss Function and Benefit Measurement.- 1.0 Introduction.- 1.1 Utility and Social Welfare.- 1.2 Equity.- 1.3 A Simple Loss Function.- Errors in Allocation.- 1.4 Estimating the Parameters of the Loss Function L(f?,??) for GRS.- 1.5 Fisher-Consistency and Other Properties of the Loss Function L(f?,??).- 1.6 More General Loss Functions: LH(f?,??) , Lw(f?,??).- 1.7 Exponential Loss Functions.- 2 The Delta Method.- 2.0 Outline.- 2.1 Notation.- 2.2 Description…

具有不确定性的人口预测AI 解读

"Errors in population forecasts arise from errors in the jump-off population and errors in the predictions of future vital rates. The propagation of these errors through the linear (Leslie) growth model is studied, and prediction intervals for future population are developed. For U.S. national forecasts, the prediction intervals are compared with the U.S. Census Bureau's high-low intervals." In order to assess the accuracy of the predictions of vital rates, the authors…