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干中学与技术选择AI 解读

In a Bayesian model of learning, the more an agent uses a technology, the better he learns its parameters. This expertise is a form of human capital. Switching to a new technology temporarily reduces expertise: the bigger the leap, the bigger the loss. This may prevent the agent from climbing the technological ladder too fast. Someone skilled may want to stick to his technology and experience no growth in the long run. But someone less skilled may want to switch technologies…

长波与短波：通过集约与广延搜索实现增长AI 解读

This paper endogenizes the frequency of major discoveries and the extent of their refinement. Four axioms deliver a one-parameter family of beliefs that guide exploratory effort. Such effort trades off the prospect of major new discovery against the chance of successfully refining discoveries made in the past. The only other parameter is the cost of making new discoveries relative to the cost of refining old ones. The paper derives time-series properties of inventive…

多重均衡模型的可观测含义AI 解读

Economic models with multiple equilibria are now so common in economics that we need a general framework for statistical inference in such models. This note offers a simple theoretical framework that can be used to organize the debate about the question of whether such a model is identified, and about the question of how much predictive content it retains