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高维面板数据模型的稳健估计与推断AI 解读

This paper provides the relevant literature with a complete toolkit for conducting robust estimation and inference about the parameters of interest involved in a high-dimensional panel data framework. Specifically, (1) we allow for non-Gaussian, serially and cross-sectionally correlated and heteroskedastic error processes, (2) we develop an estimation method for the high-dimensional long-run covariance matrix using a thresholded estimator, (3) we also allow for the number of…

分组时变网络向量自回归模型的估计AI 解读

This paper introduces a flexible time-varying network vector autoregressive model framework for large-scale time series. A latent group structure is imposed on the heterogeneous and node-specific time-varying momentum and network spillover effects so that the number of unknown time-varying coefficients to be estimated can be reduced considerably. A classic agglomerative clustering algorithm with nonparametrically estimated distance matrix is combined with a ratio criterion…

因子模型结构变化的稳健残差检验AI 解读

In this paper, we propose an easy-to-implement residual-based specification testing procedure for detecting structural changes in factor models, which is powerful against both smooth and abrupt structural changes with unknown break dates. The proposed test is robust to the over-specified number of factors, and serially and cross-sectionally correlated error processes. A new central limit theorem is given for the quadratic forms of panel data with dependence over both…

时变向量误差修正模型：估计与推断AI 解读

This paper considers a time-varying vector error-correction model that allows for different time series behaviors (e.g., unit-root and locally stationary processes) to interact with each other and co-exist. From a practical perspective, this framework can be used to estimate shifts in the predictability of non-stationary variables, and test whether economic theories hold periodically, etc. We first develop a time-varying Granger Representation Theorem, which facilitates the…

时变向量无限阶移动平均过程的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper introduces a new class of time-varying vector moving average processes of infinite order. These processes serve dual purposes: (1) they can be used to model time-varying dependence structures, and (2) they can be used to establish asymptotic theories for multivariate time series models. To illustrate these two points, we first establish some fundamental asymptotic properties and use them to infer the trending term of a vector moving average infinity process. We…

具有一般因子与解释变量的交互效应面板模型AI 解读

This paper considers a model with general regressors and unobservable common factors. An estimator based on iterated principal component analysis is proposed, which is shown to be not only asymptotically normal, but under certain conditions also free of the otherwise so common asymptotic incidental parameters bias. Interestingly, the conditions required to achieve unbiasedness become weaker the stronger the trends in the factors, and if the trending is strong enough,…

面板数据模型的高阶展开与统计推断AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a simple inferential method for a wide class of panel data models with a focus on such cases that have both serial correlation and cross-sectional dependence. In order to establish an asymptotic theory to support the inferential method, we develop some new and useful higher-order expansions, such as Berry-Esseen bound and Edgeworth Expansion, under a set of simple and general conditions. We further demonstrate the usefulness of these theoretical…

时变 VAR 模型的估计、推断与实证分析AI 解读

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, for example, forecasting, modeling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this article introduces a new class of time-varying VAR models in which the coefficients and covariance matrix of the error innovations are allowed to change smoothly over time. Accordingly, we establish a set of asymptotic properties including the impulse…

含交互固定效应的异质面板二元响应模型AI 解读

In this paper, we investigate binary response models for heterogeneous panel data with interactive fixed effects by allowing both the cross-sectional dimension and the temporal dimension to diverge. From a practical point of view, the proposed framework can be applied to predict the probability of corporate failure, conduct credit rating analysis, etc. Theoretically and methodologically, we build a link between a maximum likelihood estimation and a least squares approach,…

经济增长建模的综合面板数据方法AI 解读

Empirical growth analysis is plagued with three problems – variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence – which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. This study is to propose an integrated framework that allows for parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional error dependence, while simultaneously performing variable selection. We derive the asymptotic properties of the estimator, and apply the framework to a dataset of 89…

具有非平稳性与部分可观测因子结构的变系数面板数据模型AI 解读

In this article, we study a varying-coefficient panel data model with both nonstationarity and partially observed factor structure. Two approaches are proposed. The first approach proposed in the main text considers a sieve based method to estimate the unknown coefficients as well as the factors and loading functions simultaneously, while the second approach proposed in the online supplementary document involving the principal component analysis provides an alternative…

具有条件稀疏结构的大型协方差矩阵的非参数估计AI 解读

This paper studies estimation of covariance matrices with conditional sparse structure. We overcome the challenge of estimating dense matrices using a factor structure, the challenge of estimating large-dimensional matrices by postulating sparsity on covariance of random noises, and the challenge of estimating varying matrices by allowing factor loadings to smoothly change. A kernel-weighted estimation approach combined with generalised shrinkage is proposed. Under some…

含非平稳变量的非参数时间序列模型加权筛估计AI 解读

We study a class of nonparametric regression models that includes deterministic time trends and both stationary and nonstationary stochastic processes (whose shocks are allowed to be mutually correlated). We propose a unified approach to estimation based on the weighted sieve method to tackle the issue of unbounded support of the covariates. This approach improves on the existing technology in terms of some key regularity conditions such as moment conditions and the α-mixing…

含全局幂律趋势与局部非参数趋势的半参数模型推断AI 解读

We consider a model with both a parametric global trend and a nonparametric local trend. This model may be of interest in a number of applications in economics, finance, ecology, and geology. We first propose two hypothesis tests to detect whether two nested special cases are appropriate. For the case where both null hypotheses are rejected, we propose an estimation method to capture certain aspects of the time trend. We establish consistency and some distribution theory in…

含交互固定效应的半参数单指标面板模型：理论与实践AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a single-index panel data model with unobserved multiple interactive fixed effects. This model has the advantages of being flexible and of being able to allow for common shocks and their heterogeneous impacts on cross sections, thus making it suitable for the investigation of many economic issues. The asymptotic theories are established accordingly. Our Monte Carlo simulations show that our methodology works well for large N and T cases. In our…

含固定效应的变系数面板模型：理论与美国商业银行应用AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a semiparametric varying-coefficient categorical panel data model in which covariates (variables affecting the coefficients) are purely categorical. This model has two features: first, fixed effects are included to allow for correlation between individual unobserved heterogeneity and the regressors; second, it allows for cross-sectional dependence through a general spatial error dependence structure. We derive a semiparametric estimator for our…

存在截面依赖的半参数单指标面板模型AI 解读

In this paper, we consider a semiparametric single-index panel data model with cross-sectional dependence and stationarity. Meanwhile, we allow fixed effects to be correlated with the regressors to capture unobservable heterogeneity. Under a general spatial error dependence structure, we then establish some consistent closed-form estimates for both the unknown parameters and the link function for the case where both cross-sectional dimension (N) and temporal dimension (T) go…